考察中国区域经济发展的时空差异并分析其影响因素,对精准实施区域协调发展战略具有重要意义。采用不平等指数、Kernel密度估计、马尔可夫转移概率矩阵、地理方差分解等方法对1997—2021年中国地级市、省域和七大区域空间单元的经济发展差异进行测度,并采用空间计量模型分析区域经济发展差异的影响因素。研究发现,经济发展差异在地级市、省域和七大区域空间单元都呈现先上升后下降的趋势。地级市、省域和七大区域空间单元的经济发展水平均不断上升,而七大区域空间单元经济发展的演进趋势比地级市和省域空间单元更加复杂多样。地级市和省域空间单元人均实际生产总值的位序变动较大,竞争效应凸显,地级市之间的经济发展差距逐渐超过省域之间的经济发展差距。空间计量结果表明,市场经济改革、财政分权以及对外开放水平会影响区域经济发展差异。研究结论对于精准化制定区域发展政策、缩小区域经济发展差距具有一定的借鉴意义。
Measuring the spatial and temporal disparities in China’s regional economic development and identifying the underlying influencing factors are crucial for the precise implementation of regional coordinated development policies. Utilizing methods such as inequality index, Kernel density estimation, Markov transition probability matrix, and geographical variance decomposition, this study measures the economic development disparities across spatial units including prefecture-level cities, provincial regions, and seven major regions in China from 1997 to 2021. Furthermore, the research uses the spatial econometric models to analyze the mechanisms influencing regional economic development disparities. The study finds that economic development inequity in spatial units, including prefecture-level cities, provincial regions, and the seven major regions, show a trend of first rising and then declining. Kernel density graphs indicate that the economic development levels across spatial units are continuously increasing, but the evolution trends of the seven major regions are more complex and diverse compared to those of prefecture-level cities and provincial regions. There are significant changes in the rank order of per capita real GDP among prefecture-level cities and provincial regions, highlighting a competitive effect. The change in the proportion of geographical variance shows that the economic development inequality between prefecture-level cities is gradually exceeding the economic development inequality between provincial regions. The results of the spatial econometric model suggest that market economic reforms, fiscal decentralization, and the level of openness to the world are the key factors to influence regional economic development disparities. The conclusions of this study provide valuable insights for formulating precise regional development policies and narrowing regional economic development disparities.
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