利用黄河流域54个城市2010—2019年的面板数据,对城市人与自然耦合协调发展程度开展时间演进趋势和空间分异状况分析,并采用空间回归模型研究其影响因素和影响程度。研究发现,黄河流域城市人与自然耦合协调程度在全流域上呈现小幅度增长态势,但实现了由初级协调向中级协调状态的跃迁,全流域呈现依上游、中游、下游梯次增强的“东高西低”分布趋势,城市之间出现极化效应。经济水平的提升、创新能力的增强、开放程度的提高和第二产业占比的下降有利于提高城市人与自然耦合协调度。上游地区城市人与自然耦合协调度的影响因素和周边城市人与自然耦合协调度对本城市的空间溢出效应相较于中、下游地区具有显著异质性。基于以上研究结论,提出提升黄河流域城市人与自然耦合协调水平、促进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的对策建议。
Based on the panel data of 54 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019, this paper analyzed the time evolution trend and spatial differentiation of the coupling coordination between human and nature, and further used the spatial regression model to study its influencing factors and degree. The study found that the degree of coupling coordination between human and nature in the cities of the Yellow River Basin showed a small growth trend in the whole basin, but realized the transition from primary coordination to intermediate coordination. The whole basin presented a distribution trend of “East High and West Low” enhanced by the upper, middle and lower reaches, and there was a polarization effect between cities. The improvement of economic level, innovation ability, openness and the decline of the proportion of the secondary industry were conducive to the improvement of the coupling coordination between human and nature. Compared with the middle and lower reaches, the influencing factors of the degree of coupling coordination between human and nature and the spatial spillover effects of surrounding cities on their own cities were significantly heterogeneous in the upper reaches. Based on the above research conclusions, this paper put forward countermeasures and suggestions to improve the degree of coupling coordination between human and nature in the cities of the Yellow River Basin and promote the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.
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