经济与社会

经济复杂度与城市绿色发展——基于创新能力的视角

  • 倪孟颖 ,
  • 刘自敏
展开
倪孟颖(1994—),女,江苏南京人,西南大学经济管理学院博士研究生,主要研究方向为城市经济、能源经济。
刘自敏(1981—),男,四川德阳人,西南大学经济管理学院教授,博士研究生导师,博士,主要研究方向为产业经济、能源经济。

收稿日期: 2025-03-12

  修回日期: 2025-05-03

  网络出版日期: 2025-08-07

基金资助

国家社会科学基金项目(24CJL040)——“全国统一碳市场的参数优化与路径设计研究”。

Economic complexity and urban green development: From the perspective of innovation capacity

  • NI Meng-ying ,
  • LIU Zi-min
Expand

Received date: 2025-03-12

  Revised date: 2025-05-03

  Online published: 2025-08-07

摘要

在“双碳”目标约束下,如何通过创新驱动实现经济与生态协同发展已成为关键议题。运用反射迭代法构建城市经济复杂度指标,系统考察经济复杂度对城市绿色发展的影响及其机制。研究发现,经济复杂度的提升显著促进城市经济绿色发展,且边际效应随复杂度的提高呈递增趋势,该结论在运用工具变量法、排除政策干扰及多维稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验表明,经济复杂度的绿色效应源自城市创新能力的结构性升级,具体通过“创新投入增加—产出绿色化—价值深化—效率提升”四维路径传导,且作用强度呈非线性递增趋势。异质性分析显示,行业复杂度提升的绿色边际效应呈非对称性,经济复杂度的绿色提升作用在风险投资多、资源禀赋高、创新创业政策密集型城市中更为明显。基于研究结论提出政策建议,以期为优化城市创新生态系统、破解绿色转型中的路径依赖问题、推进“双碳”目标下高质量发展提供理论与政策依据。

本文引用格式

倪孟颖 , 刘自敏 . 经济复杂度与城市绿色发展——基于创新能力的视角[J]. 城市问题, 2025 , 358(5) : 89 -103 . DOI: 10.13239/j.bjsshkxy.cswt.250509

Abstract

Under the binding constraints of the dual carbon goals (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality), the imperative to achieve coordinated economic-ecological development through innovation-driven strategies has emerged as a critical policy challenge. This study employs a reflective iteration methodology to construct a city-level economic complexity index, systematically investigating its impact on urban green development and underlying mechanisms. Key findings reveal: Enhanced economic complexity significantly promotes urban green economic development, with marginal effects exhibiting an increasing trend as complexity elevates. These results remain robust after addressing endogeneity through instrumental variable approaches, controlling policy interventions, and conducting multi-dimensional sensitivity analyses. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the green effect of economic complexity originates from structural upgrading of urban innovation capacity, transmitted through a four-dimensional pathway: “innovation input intensification → output greening → value chain deepening → efficiency enhancement”, with effect intensity following a nonlinearly increasing pattern. Heterogeneity analysis identifies asymmetric marginal green effects across industrial sectors,and reveals stronger complexity-driven green upgrading effects in cities characterized by abundant venture capital, superior resource endowments, and intensive innovation-entrepreneurship policies. This research provides theoretical foundations and policy insights for optimizing urban innovation ecosystems, overcoming path dependence in green transition, and advancing high-quality development under the dual carbon paradigm.

参考文献

[1] Hidalgo C A, Hausmann R. The building blocks of economic complexity[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009(26): 10570-10575
[2] Lall S, Weiss J, Zhang J. The “sophistication” of exports: A new trade measure[J]. World Development, 2006(2): 222-237
[3] Rodrik D. What’s so special about China’s exports?[J]. China & World Economy, 2006(5):1-19
[4] Hausmann R, Hwang J, Rodrik D. What you export matters[J]. Journal of Economic Growth,2007(1):1-25
[5] Xu B. The sophistication of exports: Is China special?[J]. China Economic Review, 2010(3): 482-493
[6] 倪红福.中国出口技术含量动态变迁及国际比较[J].经济研究,2017(1):44-57
[7] Tacchella A, Cristelli M, Caldarelli G, et al. Economic complexity: Conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013(8): 1683-1691
[8] Hausmann R, Hidalgo C A, Bustos S, et al. The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity[M]. Mit Press, 2014
[9] Zhu S, Li R. Economic complexity, human capital and economic growth: Empirical research based on cross-country panel data[J]. Applied Economics, 2017(38): 3815-3828
[10] Buccellato T, Corò G. Relatedness, Economic Complexity and Convergence Across European Regions[M]. Capitalism, Global Change and Sustainable Development. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020: 149-167
[11] 张其仔,伍业君,王磊. 经济复杂度、地区专业化与经济增长——基于中国省级面板数据的经验分析[J]. 经济管理,2012(6):1-9
[12] Poncet S, de Waldemar F S. Economic complexity and growth[J]. Revue Economique,2013(3): 495-503
[13] 李小平,周记顺,王树柏. 中国制造业出口复杂度的提升和制造业增长[J]. 世界经济,2015(2):31-57
[14] 丁一兵,刘威.进口产品复杂度对产业结构高级化的影响——来自中国 34 个工业行业的经验研究[J].经济评论,2018(3):31-45
[15] 刘守英,杨继东. 中国产业升级的演进与政策选择——基于产品空间的视角[J]. 管理世界,2019(6):81-94,194-195
[16] Shahzad U, Madaleno M, Dagar V, et al. Exploring the role of export product quality and economic complexity for economic progress of developed economies: Does institutional quality matter?[J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2022, 62: 40-51
[17] Wang X, Chen G, Afshan S, et al. Transition towards sustainable energy: The role of economic complexity, financial liberalization and natural resources management in China[J]. Resources Policy, 2023, 83: 103631
[18] Boleti E, Garas A, Kyriakou A, et al. Economic complexity and environmental performance: Evidence from a world sample[J]. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2021(3): 251-270
[19] Cristelli M, Gabrielli A, Tacchella A, et al. Measuring the intangibles: A metrics for the economic complexity of countries and products[J]. PloS one, 2013(8): e70726
[20] Chuluun T, Prevost A, Upadhyay A. Firm network structure and innovation[J]. Journal of Corporate Finance, 2017, 44: 193-214
[21] Liu W, Xu J Q, She S X. Green economic development by increasing efficiency of natural resource consumption[J]. Resources Policy, 2023(8): 103961
[22] 李卫兵,李翠.“两型社会”综改区能促进绿色发展吗?[J].财经研究.2018(10):24-37
[23] Chung Y H, Färe R, Grosskopf S. Productivity and undesirable outputs: A directional distance function approach[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 1997(3): 229-240
[24] Oh D. A global Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index[J]. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2010, 34: 183-197
[25] Levinson A. Technology, international trade, and pollution from US manufacturing[J]. American Economic Review,2009(5): 2177-2192
[26] Hall B H, Helmers C. Innovation and diffusion of clean/green technology: Can patent commons help?[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2013(1): 33-51
[27] 林毅夫,张鹏飞.适宜技术、技术选择和发展中国家的经济增长[J].经济学(季刊),2006(3):985-1006
[28] 陈喆,郑江淮.绿色技术创新能够促进地区经济高质量发展吗?——兼论环境政策的选择效应[J].当代经济科学,2022(4):43-58
[29] 郭克莎.经济增长方式转变的条件和途径[J].中国社会科学,1995(6):15-26
[30] 陈佳贵,黄群慧.工业发展、国情变化与经济现代化战略——中国成为工业大国的国情分析[J].中国社会科学,2005(4):4-16,205
[31] 刘伟,蔡志洲.技术进步、结构变动与改善国民经济中间消耗[J].经济研究,2008(4):4-14,40
[32] 沈利生,王恒.增加值率下降意味着什么[J].经济研究,2006(3):59-66
[33] 孙学涛,王振华,张广胜.全要素生产率提升中的结构红利及其空间溢出效应[J].经济评论,2018(3):46-58
[34] 刘志彪,凌永辉.结构转换、全要素生产率与高质量发展[J]. 管理世界. 2020(7): 15-29
[35] Zhang F, Deng X, Phillips F, et al. Impacts of industrial structure and technical progress on carbon emission intensity: Evidence from 281 cities in China[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, 154: 119949
[36] 佘硕,王巧,张阿城.技术创新、产业结构与城市绿色全要素生产率——基于国家低碳城市试点的影响渠道检验[J].经济与管理研究,2020(8):44-61
[37] 杜龙政,赵云辉,陶克涛,等.环境规制、治理转型对绿色竞争力提升的复合效应——基于中国工业的经验证据[J].经济研究,2019(10):106-120
[38] Yan Z, Zou B, Du K, et al. Do renewable energy technology innovations promote China’s green productivity growth? Fresh evidence from partially linear functional-coefficient models[J]. Energy Economics, 2020, 90: 104842
[39] Tacchella A, Cristelli M, Caldarelli G, et al. Economic complexity: Conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness[J]. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013(8): 1683-1691
[40] Albeaik S, Kaltenberg M, Alsaleh M, et al. Improving the economic complexity index[J]. arXiv preprint arXiv:1707.05826, 2017
[41] Fawaz F, Rahnama-Moghadamm M. Spatial dependence of global income inequality: The role of economic complexity[J]. The International Trade Journal, 2019(6): 542-554
[42] González A, Ortigoza E, Llamosas C, et al. Multi-criteria analysis of economic complexity transition in emerging economies: The case of Paraguay[J]. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 2019, 68: 100617
[43] 邵帅,李欣,曹建华.中国的城市化推进与雾霾治理[J].经济研究,2019(2):148-165
[44] 孙传旺,罗源,姚昕.交通基础设施与城市空气污染——来自中国的经验证据[J].经济研究,2019(8):136-151
[45] 郑江淮,师磊. 本地化创新能力、区域创新高地与产业地理梯度演化路径[J].中国工业经济,2023(5):43-60
[46] 贺灿飞,任卓然,叶雅玲.中国产业地理集聚与区域出口经济复杂度[J].地理研究,2021(8):2119-2140
[47] Xue S, Zhang B, Zhao X. Brain drain: The impact of air pollution on firm performance[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2021, 110: 102546
[48] 林伯强,谭睿鹏.中国经济集聚与绿色经济效率[J].经济研究,2019(2):119-132
[49] 胡增玺,马述忠.市场一体化对企业数字创新的影响——兼论数字创新衡量方法[J].经济研究,2023(6):155-172
[50] Nunn N, Qian N. US food aid and civil conflict[J]. American Economic Review, 2014(6): 1630-1666
[51] 余泳泽,孙鹏博,宣烨.地方政府环境目标约束是否影响了产业转型升级?[J].经济研究,2020(8):57-72
[52] 孙传旺,罗源,姚昕.交通基础设施与城市空气污染——来自中国的经验证据[J].经济研究,2019(8):136-151
[53] 王勇,李雅楠,俞海.环境规制影响加总生产率的机制和效应分析[J].世界经济,2019(2):97-121
文章导航

/

〈 〉