理解新质生产力的两个关键点:一是生产要素构成是否发生了质变,二是产业载体形态是否发生了质变。基于宏观历史视角,人类社会迄今为止经历了叠加型的四维生产力演化,即自然生产力、工具生产力、能源生产力和数据生产力。由新质生产力驱动的文明迸发实际上只有三次,即工具生产力驱动的农业文明,能源生产力叠加工具生产力驱动的工业文明,数据生产力叠加工具、能源生产力驱动的信息文明。人类生产力从一维、二维、三维状态进阶到四维状态,财富增长模式从自然增长、算数增长、乘数增长跃升到指数增长,其背后的底层逻辑都是技术驱动。自然生产力只能驱动财富自然增长,自然生产力叠加工具生产力会造就财富算数级数增长,自然生产力、工具生产力与能源生产力三重叠加就会引发财富乘数级数增长,而自然生产力、工具生产力、能源生产力与数据生产力四重叠加就会引爆财富指数级数增长。由此可见,未来城市财富增长的新模式,将是一个四维生产力融合的指数级增长模式。

Understanding new quality productive forces hinges on two key aspects: whether there has been a qualitative change in the composition of production factors, and whether there has been a qualitative transformation in the form of industrial carriers. From a long-term historical perspective, human society has thus far experienced a superimposed four-dimensional evolution of productive forces: natural productive forces, tool productive forces, energy productive forces, and data productive forces. In reality, only three civilizational breakthroughs have been driven by new quality productive forces: the agricultural civilization driven by tool productive forces, the industrial civilization driven by the superimposition of energy productive forces onto tool productive forces, and the information civilization driven by the superimposition of data productive forces onto tool and energy productive forces. As human productive forces advanced from one-dimensional to two-dimensional, three-dimensional, and finally four-dimensional, wealth growth shifted from natural growth, arithmetic growth, and multiplicative growth to exponential growth. The underlying logic behind this progression is technological driving forces. Natural forces alone can only drive natural wealth growth; the superimposition of natural forces and tool forces leads to arithmetic wealth growth; the triple superimposition of natural, tool, and energy forces triggers multiplicative wealth growth; and the quadruple superimposition of natural, tool, energy, and data forces ignites exponential wealth growth. Therefore, it can be boldly anticipated that the new model of urban wealth growth in the future will be an exponential growth driven by the integration of 4P, and an affluent human society is highly likely to become a reality within the next 50 years.