结合中国消费的现实环境与潜力内涵界定理论,将系统性消费冲击下次级单元居民消费分布结构粘性作为区域居民消费潜力的测度指标,基于2000—2023年中国地级市数据评估城乡居民消费潜力,进而考察其时空演化与空间网络特征。研究发现:居民消费潜力存在区域异质性与结构分化,整体呈“中部最高、东部次之、西部较低”的梯度格局,且低消费群体消费潜力较大,高消费群体消费潜力较小。城乡消费潜力在水平、路径及网络特征上呈现差异,城镇潜力演进呈现“低水平集中—快速提升—高位扩散”路径,农村潜力则长期低缓并出现内部分化,城乡差距虽收敛但农村网络连通效率较低。消费潜力空间网络具有稳定的“核心—边缘”结构,并呈现持续扁平化、多中心化演进趋势,城乡网络密度趋同表明市场一体化不断深化,但农村网络韧性相对不足。基于研究结论提出政策建议,以期为缩小区域与城乡消费差距、构建可持续的消费促进长效机制提供关键政策靶点与决策依据。
Based on the realistic context and potential connotation theory of consumption in China, and from the perspective of structural stickiness in the consumption distribution of sub-units under systemic consumption shocks, this study constructs a measurement indicator for regional household consumption potential. Using prefecture-level data in China from 2000 to 2023, this paper evaluates the consumption potential of urban and rural residents across provinces or regions, and examines its spatiotemporal evolution and spatial network characteristics. The findings are as follows: First, there is regional heterogeneity and structural differentiation in household consumption potential, showing an overall gradient pattern of “highest in the central region, followed by the eastern region, and relatively low in the western region.” Moreover, low-consumption groups exhibit greater potential, while high-consumption groups show less. Second, urban and rural consumption potential differ in level, evolution path, and network characteristics. Urban potential follows a path of “low-level concentration—rapid improvement—high-level diffusion,” whereas rural potential remains consistently low with internal differentiation. Although the urban–rural gap has narrowed, the rural network shows lower connectivity efficiency. Third, the spatial network of consumption potential exhibits a stable “core–periphery” structure, with a continuing trend toward flattening and polycentric development. The convergence in urban–rural network density reflects deepening market integration, yet the rural network demonstrates relatively insufficient resilience. The study provides key policy leverage points and decision-making references for narrowing regional and urban–rural consumption gaps and building a sustainable long-term mechanism for consumption promotion.
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