在“双碳”目标约束和城镇化持续推进的背景下,建设用地扩张对城市生态系统的影响正由碳汇规模变化进一步延伸至碳汇功能的维持、恢复与稳定运行。基于2012—2023年我国地级市面板数据,利用植被净初级生产力构建城市碳汇韧性指标,并从抵抗力、恢复力和稳定性三个维度展开测度,在此基础上采用双向固定效应模型考察建设用地扩张对城市碳汇韧性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,建设用地扩张显著削弱了城市碳汇韧性,对其抵抗力、恢复力和稳定性均产生显著的负向影响,且对恢复力的负向影响最大。机制检验表明,生态空间挤压、道路渗透加深与热暴露强化是建设用地扩张削弱城市碳汇韧性的主要传导路径。建设用地扩张对城市碳汇韧性的影响存在显著的门槛效应,在低扩张阶段,其边际损害更大。进一步的分区分析结果表明,低扩张并不必然对应高韧性,高扩张—低韧性城市是需要优先干预的高风险类型。研究结论拓展了城市开发生态效应的研究视角,有助于为国土空间用途管制、城市更新与韧性治理提供经验证据。
Against the backdrop of dual-carbon targets and continuous urbanization, the impact of construction land expansion on urban ecosystems is extending beyond changes in carbon sink scale to include the maintenance, recovery, and stable operation of carbon sink functions. Based on panel data of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2023, this paper constructs an urban carbon sink resilience index using net primary productivity of vegetation and measures it along three dimensions: resistance, recovery, and stability. A two-way fixed-effects model is then used to examine the impact and mechanism of construction land expansion on urban carbon sink resilience. The study finds that: First, construction land expansion significantly weakens urban carbon sink resilience, negatively impacting all three dimensions: resistance, recovery, and stability, with a larger negative effect on the recovery dimension in terms of coefficient magnitude. Second, mechanism testing indicates that ecological space compression, intensified road penetration, and enhanced heat exposure are the main transmission pathways through which construction land expansion weakens urban carbon sink resilience. Third, the impact of construction land expansion exhibits a significant threshold effect; the marginal damage is stronger in the low-expansion stage. Further zoning analysis shows that low expansion does not necessarily correspond to high resilience, and cities with high expansion and low resilience are high-risk types requiring priority intervention. This study expands the research on the ecological effects of urban development from the perspective of carbon sink resilience, and also provides empirical evidence for territorial spatial use regulation, urban renewal, and resilience-oriented governance.
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