现代化首都都市圈是新时代京津冀协同发展向纵深推进的核心空间载体,推动现代化首都都市圈发展是服务保障首都功能、推动区域协调发展和完善跨行政区空间治理体系的重要实践。基于都市圈内生演化视角,构建系统演化分析框架,探究现代化首都都市圈的形成基础、演化动力、现实约束及优化路径。研究发现：现代化首都都市圈的内生演化遵循“绿智韧”共生律,其演化过程主要受生产、生活、生态三象要素禀赋及流动距离、规模法则、科技创新、动态偏好和制度创新六类内生变量共同驱动。与上海大都市圈、粤港澳大湾区和东京都市圈相比,现代化首都都市圈仍面临三象要素禀赋协同不足、流动距离约束较强、多中心空间结构发育不充分、创新链协同不畅、动态偏好引导不足以及制度创新供给滞后等问题。未来应通过三象要素禀赋优势互补、空间一体化、一核双城三极多节点组团集聚、“品质—人才—创新”一体化、动态偏好引导和制度创新等措施完善内生演化机制,推动现代化首都都市圈形成内生演化的高质量协同发展格局。

The Modern Capital Metropolitan Area serves as a core spatial platform for advancing the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in greater depth in the new era. Promoting its development is an important practice for safeguarding the functions of the capital, advancing coordinated regional development, and improving the system of cross-jurisdictional spatial governance. From the perspective of endogenous metropolitan evolution, this study constructs an analytical framework, and systematically examines the formation basis, evolutionary dynamics, practical constraints, and optimization pathways of the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area. The findings show that the endogenous evolution of the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area follows the “green-smart-resilient symbiosis law” and is jointly driven by six endogenous variables: the endowments of production, living, and ecological elements; flow distance; the law of scale; technological innovation; dynamic preferences; and institutional innovation. A comparative analysis with the Shanghai Metropolitan Area, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Tokyo Metropolitan Area reveals that the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area still faces a number of constraints, including insufficient coordination among production, living, and ecological endowments, relatively strong flow-distance constraints, an underdeveloped polycentric spatial structure, weak coordination along innovation chains, inadequate guidance of dynamic preferences, and lagging provision of institutional innovation. Future development should therefore improve the endogenous evolutionary mechanism by promoting complementarity among production, living, and ecological endowments, advancing spatial integration, fostering clustered agglomeration structured around “one core, two central cities, three strategic poles, and multiple nodes,” strengthening the integration of “quality-talent-innovation,” guiding dynamic preferences, and promoting institutional innovation, thereby facilitating the formation of a high-quality and coordinated development pattern driven by endogenous evolution in the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area.