Firstly, this paper analyzes the internal mechanism of housing subsidy affecting population migration from the theoretical level. Secondly, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of housing subsidy financial expenditure and different types of affordable housing on population migration from the regional level and the individual level by using the provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020 and the large sample data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), and then compares the differences between different groups and different cities. The study finds that the increase of housing subsidy expenditure is beneficial to the migration of rural-urban population; housing subsidy has a significant positive impact on the floating population's willingness to settle in the cities; the influence of purchase type affordable housing is more significant than that of rental type affordable housing, and the influence of rental type affordable housing on the settlement intention of urban-urban migrants is not significant; only in the cities where the ratio of house price to income exceeds the reasonable standard, the influence of rental housing on the migrants' settlement intention is significant. Combined with the research conclusion and national conditions, it is suggested that housing subsidy should continue to be an important part of public financial expenditure, but the key areas and subsidy methods of housing subsidy expenditure should be carefully selected.
DONG Xin
. Housing security, fiscal expenditures and rural-urban population migration[J]. Urban Problems, 2023
, 330(1)
: 60
-68
.
DOI: 10.13239/j.bjsshkxy.cswt.230110
[1] 中共国家卫生健康委党组. 谱写新时代人口工作新篇章[J]. 求是, 2022(15)
[2] 国家统计局. 2022年国民经济顶住压力再上新台阶[EB/OL]. (2023-01-17)[2023/01/31]. http://www.stats.gov.cn/xxgk/sjfb/zxfb2020/202301/t20230117_1892123.html
[3] 国家统计局. 中华人民共和国2021年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[EB/OL]. (2022-02-28)[2022-07-05]. http:∥www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202202/t20220227_1827960.html
[4] 董昕. 中国政府住房保障范围的变迁与现状研究[J]. 当代财经, 2011(5):84-91
[5] 吕萍,周滔. 农民工住房保障问题认识与对策研究——基于成本—效益分析[J]. 城市发展研究, 2008(3):110-114
[6] 齐慧峰,王伟强. 基于人口流动的住房保障制度改善[J]. 城市规划, 2015(2):31-37
[7] 杨菊华. 制度要素与流动人口的住房保障[J]. 人口研究, 2018(1):60-75
[8] Yu A T W, Wu Y, Zheng B, et al. Identifying risk factors of urban-rural conflict in urbanization: A case of China[J]. Habitat International, 2014(44):177-185
[9] 王桂新,胡健. 城市农民工社会保障与市民化意愿[J]. 人口学刊, 2015(6):45-55
[10] 李静. 保障性住房资金绩效审计研究——以某市为例[J]. 财政研究, 2014(11):23-27
[11] 陈立中,邓保同. 保增长与惠民生能否兼得:以住房保障的经济拉动效应为例[J]. 财政研究, 2015(12):30-36
[12] 陈俊华,刘娜. 财政分权对保障性住房供给效率的影响研究[J]. 财政研究, 2021(9):56-70
[13] Fiva J H. Does welfare policy affect residential choices? An empirical investigation accounting for policy endogeneity[J]. Journal of Public Economics, 2009(3-4):529-540
[14] Gilbert A. Helping the poor through housing subsidies: lessons from Chile, Colombia and South Africa[J]. Habitat International, 2004(1):13-40
[15] Hughes G, McCormick B. Do council housing policies reduce migration between regions[J]. The Economic Journal, 1981(364):919-937
[16] Boyle P. Public housing as a barrier to long-distance migration[J]. International Journal of Population Geography, 1995(2):147-164
[17] 毛丰付,王建生. 保障性住房能够促进人口流动吗?——基于省际人口流动的引力模型分析[J]. 华东经济管理, 2016(11):86-95
[18] 李勇辉,李小琴,沈波澜. 安居才能团聚?——保障性住房对流动人口家庭化迁移的推动效应研究[J]. 财经研究, 2019(12):32-45
[19] Oswald A J. A conjecture on the explanation for high unemployment in the industrialized nations: Part I, No. 475[R].University of Warwick Economic Research Papers, 1996
[20] Rabe B, Taylor M P. Differences in opportunities? Wage, employment and house-price effects on migration[J]. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2012(6):831-855
[21] Chan S. Spatial Lock-in: Do falling house prices constrain residential mobility?[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2001(3):567-586
[22] Aaronson D, Davis J. How much has house lock affected labor mobility and the unemployment rate? No. 290[R].The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Chicago Fed Letter, 2011
[23] Wolf N, Caruana-Galizia P. Bombs, homes, and jobs: Revisiting the oswald hypothesis for Germany[J]. Economics Letters, 2015,135:65-68
[24] 刘斌. 住房自有率、人口流动与劳动力参与率——基于全国第六次人口普查数据的研究[J]. 技术经济与管理研究, 2016(10):88-92
[25] Todaro M P. A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries[J]. The American Economic Review, 1969(1):138-148
[26] 钟水映,李春香. 乡城人口流动的理论解释:农村人口退出视角——托达罗模型的再修正[J]. 人口研究, 2015(6):13-21
[27] King G, Zeng L. Logistic regression in rare events data[J]. Political Analysis, 2001(2):137-163
[28] 田巍,余淼杰. 汇率变化、贸易服务与中国企业对外直接投资[J]. 世界经济, 2017(11):23-46
[29] 董昕. 我国房地产调控中的问题及建议——基于政策连续性和市场稳定性[J]. 建筑经济, 2020(10):9-12