This paper analyzes the impact of pre-sale of commercial housing on China’s urbanization process from five dimensions: fiscal effect, industrial effect, market effect, crowding out effect and risk effect, and analyzes the nonlinear characteristics of the relationship between the two based on the principle of institutional economics. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2006 to 2020, the bidirectional fixed-effect model and threshold effect model were used to carry out empirical tests. The results show that the implementation of pre-sale of commercial housing significantly accelerates the process of urbanization in China, but the net impact on urbanization generally presents an “inverted U” type nonlinear feature with the evolution of urban development stage, and the two threshold values are 18,968.21 yuan and 85,440.67 yuan per capita GDP. For cities with different basic development conditions, the impact of pre-sale of commercial housing on urbanization is heterogeneous. The pre-urbanization areas have a higher threshold value, while the late-urbanization areas fail to copy the experience and model of the pre-urbanization areas. Based on the above conclusions, it is suggested that China should objectively assess the sustainability of using pre-sale of commercial housing as a development “accelerator.” Initiating reform in “leading” and “lagging” cities can be seen as a pioneer approach, with the central objective of reform being the attenuation of the financial attributes of pre-sale of commercial housing.
ZHANG Zheng-feng
,
KONG Wei-long
,
HU Qi-yu
. The impact of pre-sale of commercial housing on China’s urbanization process and its threshold effect[J]. Urban Problems, 2023
, 339(10)
: 66
-76
.
DOI: 10.13239/j.bjsshkxy.cswt.231007
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