The incentive structure of local governments can impact the adjustment patterns of basic public service expenditures by influencing attention allocation and motivation differentiation. From the perspective of governmental behavior logic and based on the theoretical framework of “incentive-attention-motivation-behavior,” this paper empirically studies the impact and mechanisms of population aging on the scale and structure of basic public service expenditures. The results indicate that population aging has a significant effect on both the scale and structure of basic public service expenditures, showing dual characteristics of “economic and fiscal type” and “public service type.” In response to aging, fiscal and tax incentives bias the adjustment of basic public service expenditures toward the “economic and fiscal type,” focusing on short-term effects. Promotion incentives give higher weight to “public service type” motivations, but these also tend to focus on short-term and visible outcomes. Further analysis reveals that higher levels of aging and attention promote the “economic and fiscal type” motivations towards enhancing long-term human capital, while “public service type” motivations evolve to meet the needs of youth housing, fertility, and elderly care. This results in the contraction of the scale of basic public service expenditures. Therefore, the article suggests refining local government assessment standards, coordinating the advancement of fiscal and tax system reforms, continuously optimizing the structure of basic public service expenditures, and fully tapping into the potential of the silver economy. Through effective institutional supply, it aims to break the “aging before preparedness” pattern, ensuring adequate and efficient provision of basic public services and promoting high-quality development in an aging society.
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