Economic complexity and urban green development: From the perspective of innovation capacity

  • NI Meng-ying ,
  • LIU Zi-min
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Received date: 2025-03-12

  Revised date: 2025-05-03

  Online published: 2025-08-07

Abstract

Under the binding constraints of the dual carbon goals (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality), the imperative to achieve coordinated economic-ecological development through innovation-driven strategies has emerged as a critical policy challenge. This study employs a reflective iteration methodology to construct a city-level economic complexity index, systematically investigating its impact on urban green development and underlying mechanisms. Key findings reveal: Enhanced economic complexity significantly promotes urban green economic development, with marginal effects exhibiting an increasing trend as complexity elevates. These results remain robust after addressing endogeneity through instrumental variable approaches, controlling policy interventions, and conducting multi-dimensional sensitivity analyses. Mechanism analysis demonstrates that the green effect of economic complexity originates from structural upgrading of urban innovation capacity, transmitted through a four-dimensional pathway: “innovation input intensification → output greening → value chain deepening → efficiency enhancement”, with effect intensity following a nonlinearly increasing pattern. Heterogeneity analysis identifies asymmetric marginal green effects across industrial sectors,and reveals stronger complexity-driven green upgrading effects in cities characterized by abundant venture capital, superior resource endowments, and intensive innovation-entrepreneurship policies. This research provides theoretical foundations and policy insights for optimizing urban innovation ecosystems, overcoming path dependence in green transition, and advancing high-quality development under the dual carbon paradigm.

Cite this article

NI Meng-ying , LIU Zi-min . Economic complexity and urban green development: From the perspective of innovation capacity[J]. Urban Problems, 2025 , 358(5) : 89 -103 . DOI: 10.13239/j.bjsshkxy.cswt.250509

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