Based on the urban panel data, the population-weighted average method, Thayer coefficient and gray prediction model are used to measure, decompose and forecast the urban economic imbalance in China. It is found that: From 2001 to 2020, the spatial pattern of China’s urban economy has the characteristics of unbalanced distribution, and the overall degree of imbalance has decreased. The degree of imbalance within urban economic groups is higher than that between groups, and the degree of imbalance within “East-West” and “North-South” groups are both decreasing, and the former is higher than the latter. The gap between “East and West” groups continues to decrease, while the gap between “North and South” economies began to widen in 2014, and the degree of imbalance between “East and West” groups is still much higher than that between “North and South” groups. The imbalance between the “North and South” groups is still much higher than the imbalance between the “East and West” groups. It is predicted that the decline of economic imbalance in China’s cities will level off in the next stage, and there is still uncertainty about how the “North-South” gap will evolve. The article provides city-level evidence for the study of regional imbalances in China, and provides new academic clues for the formulation of regional policies for Chinese-style modernization.
BI Xue-cheng
,
LI Li
,
LI Xiang
. Measurement, decomposition and forecasting of urban economic growth imbalance in China:A comparative study based on “East - West” and “North - South”[J]. Urban Problems, 2022
, 328(11)
: 74
-83
.
DOI: 10.13239/j.bjsshkxy.cswt.221108
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