Against the background of divergent population growth and decline, it is necessary to optimize the allocation of public fiscal resources in accordance with the size of the permanent resident population. Based on data from 2,071 counties in China, this paper first applies machine learning methods to identify the relative importance of population size in predicting per capita fiscal expenditure and to characterize its nonlinear association. It then constructs a population elasticity model to systematically examine the population-related economies of scale in county-level fiscal expenditure. The results show that population size is an important predictor of county-level per capita fiscal expenditure. County-level fiscal expenditure exhibits population-related economies of scale, but this effect diminishes as population size increases, with larger counties approaching the boundary of scale economies. The effect is more pronounced in counties with lower population density and lower fiscal self-sufficiency. Accordingly, public fiscal resource allocation should take into account population size, population density, and fiscal capacity, improve the fiscal resource allocation mechanism in line with changes in the resident population, enhance the efficiency of public service delivery in small-population and low-density counties, and refine differentiated policy mechanisms for county governance and fiscal performance.
WANG Zuo-bao
,
ZHANG Shu-rui
,
ZOU Jin-ping
. Population-related economies of scale in county-level fiscal expenditure: Empirical evidences from 2,071 counties in China[J]. Urban Problems, 2026
, 371(6)
: 68
-81
.
DOI: 10.13239/j.bjsshkxy.cswt.260606
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