利用企业层面和城市层面的匹配数据研究城市规模对资本回报率的影响。研究发现,城市规模和资本回报率的关系呈现先上升后下降的倒“U”型趋势,且城市基础设施和公共服务的提高可以推迟城市规模与资本回报率之间的“拐点”。从所有权和行业差异看,城市规模的集聚效应对非国有企业和轻工业企业的作用更大,从企业规模和企业年龄差异看,大规模企业和新建企业资本回报率的倒“U”型拐点来得更晚。另外,随着城市规模的扩张,出现投资过度的概率有先下降后上升的趋势,即相对于大中型城市,小城市和特大型城市投资过度的问题更为严重。研究结论可为中国城市体系空间布局的优化和调整方向提供经验依据。
Based on the matching data at the enterprise and city levels, the article makes an in-depth study on the impact of city size on capital return. Research has found that the relationship between urban size and return on capital shows an inverted U-shaped trend, and the improvement of urban infrastructure and public services can delay the “turning point”. From the perspective of ownership and industry differences, the agglomeration effect of urban scale has a greater impact on non-state-owned enterprises and light industrial enterprises. From the perspective of enterprise size and age differences, the inverted U-shaped inflection point of capital return for large-scale enterprises and newly built enterprises comes later. In addition, with the expansion of urban scale, the probability of excessive investment tends to decrease first and then increase, indicating that compared to large and medium-sized cities, the problem of excessive investment in small and mega cities is more serious. The research provides an empirical basis for the optimization and regulation of the spatial layout of China’s urban system.
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