基于2008年金融危机这一外生冲击变量和2007—2016年中国地级市层面数据,系统考察了贸易政策不确定性对中国城市经济韧性的影响,并探讨了技术创新在减少政策不确定性负面影响中的作用。结果表明:贸易政策不确定性通过贸易敞口显著降低了城市经济韧性,而技术创新可以通过强化竞争优势、补全供应链以及培育新的经济增长点等途径有效缓解贸易政策不确定性对城市经济韧性的负面影响。异质性分析发现,与中西部地区相比,贸易政策不确定性对贸易敞口较高的东部地区城市经济韧性的负面影响更大,且国内市场一体化程度越低,贸易政策不确定性所带来的负面冲击越大。我国应持续深入实施创新驱动战略,提升城市应对风险的能力,提高城市经济韧性。
The current international situation is complex and severe, and the uncertainty of trade policies has increased significantly, which poses a great challenge to China’s stable economic operation. Therefore, combined with the exogenous impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the data of China’s prefecture level cities from 2007 to 2016, this paper systematically examined the impact of trade policy uncertainty on China’s urban economic resilience, and discussed the role of innovation in weakening the negative impact of policy uncertainty. The results show that the uncertainty of trade policy significantly reduces the urban economic resilience through trade exposure, while technological innovation can effectively mitigate the negative impact of the uncertainty of trade policy on the urban economic resilience through strengthening the competitive advantage, completing the supply chain and cultivating new economic growth. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the uncertainty of trade policy has a greater negative impact on the economic resilience of eastern regions with higher trade exposure and cities with lower domestic market integration. China should continue to deeply implement the innovation driven strategy, improve the city’s ability to cope with risks, and drive the shaping of urban economic resilience.
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