基于脆弱性评估模型构建粮食安全和生态安全脆弱性评价指标体系,采用熵权法对2003—2021年我国31个省份粮食安全和生态安全水平进行测度,并运用耦合协调度模型得出省份“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平。利用Dagum基尼系数对粮食主产区、粮食主销区、粮食产销平衡区的“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平区域差异及其来源进行分解,结合核密度估计和空间马尔可夫链方法讨论各省份“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平的动态发展特征。研究发现,2003—2021年,全国整体和三类区域的粮食安全脆弱性水平均表现出波动性下降趋势。“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平的总体基尼系数呈现明显的上升趋势,表明在此期间各省份之间的“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平总体差距逐渐扩大。2003—2021年,全国整体和三类区域间“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平的绝对差异有所增大。马尔可夫链分析结果表明,“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平较高省份对周围地区有较强的空间影响,相邻省份在受到其影响后“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平总体发展趋势向上。研究期内,全国整体和三类区域“粮食—生态”双安全脆弱性水平降低,且整体差异呈现上升趋势。基于研究结论,就完善扶持政策体系、加强政策保护力度、加速推进区域协调发展、因地制宜采取提升策略等提出政策建议。
Based on a vulnerability assessment model, this paper constructs an evaluation index system for both food security and ecological security vulnerabilities. Using the entropy weight method, the study measures the levels of food security and ecological security in 31 provinces of China from 2003 to 2021 and applies a coupling coordination degree model to determine the vulnerability levels of the “food-ecology” dual security across different provinces. The paper employs the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition to analyze regional differences and their sources in the “food-ecology” dual security vulnerability levels across the major grain-producing regions, major grain-consuming regions, and grain production-consumption balanced regions. Furthermore, the study discusses the dynamic development characteristics of the “food-ecology” dual security vulnerability levels in each province using kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain analysis methods. It is found that from 2003 to 2021, the overall vulnerability levels of food security in the nation and in the three major regions showed a fluctuating downward trend. The overall Gini coefficient of the “food-ecology” dual security vulnerability levels showed a significant upward trend, indicating that the gap in vulnerability levels between provinces expanded during this period. The absolute differences in the “food-ecology” dual security vulnerability levels across the country and the three major regions increased from 2003 to 2021. The results of the Markov chain analysis show that provinces with high “food-ecology” dual security vulnerability exert a strong spatial influence on neighboring areas, causing the overall vulnerability levels in adjacent provinces to rise. This study concludes that during the study period, the “food-ecology” dual security vulnerability levels in the nation and the three major regions decreased, while the overall disparities tended to increase.
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