自1999年高等教育扩招政策实施以来,我国高校面临空间扩张压力,在应对压力的驱动下逐步兴起新校区建设浪潮,地方政府也将引入新的大学校区资源作为激活区域经济活力、推动当地经济增长的战略抓手。采用本地化尺度的空间双重差分方法和基于卷积神经网络的反事实匹配空间双重差分方法,从区位导向性政策视角分析我国“双一流”大学新校区设立对地方经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,新校区的设立切实促进了地方经济活动的增长,但对周边地区的土地和住房的商业价值提升作用相对有限。其主要原因在于,尽管新校区的立激发了地方知识的溢出,推动了地方产业结构转型,促进了高科技产业集聚,但新校区周围的本地商业化服务业和便利设施的配套尚不完善,难以在更大地理尺度上发挥新校区的正外部性,进一步释放发展潜力。此外,地方政府大量划拨房地产用地的发展模式,也可能是限制新校区发挥作用的一个重要影响因素。基于研究结论,提出针对性对策建议,以期为推动未来我国大学新校区与城市区域的协同联动发展提供决策参考。
Since the expansion of university enrollment in 1999, Chinese higher education institutions have faced pressure for spatial expansion, leading to the establishment of new campuses across various regions. Concurrently, local governments have aimed to stimulate regional economic growth by attracting these new university campuses. This study employs a localized spatial difference-in-differences (Donuts DiD) method and a convolutional neural network-based counterfactual matching spatial Difference-in-Differences (CNN-Matching Donuts DiD) approach to analyze the impact of establishing “Double First-Class” university campuses on local economic growth from the perspective of location-oriented policies. The findings indicate that the establishment of new campuses has indeed promoted the growth of local economic activities.However, its effect on enhancing the commercial value of surrounding land and housing is relatively limited. The primary reasons are that, although the new campuses have stimulated local knowledge spillover activities, driven the transformation of local industrial structures, and facilitated the agglomeration of high-tech industries, the surrounding areas still lack adequate local commercial services and amenities, making it difficult to further amplify the positive externalities of the new campuses on a larger geographical scale. Additionally, the development model wherein local governments allocate substantial real estate land may also be a significant influencing factor. This research provides empirical support for promoting the coordinated and interactive development of future university campuses and urban regions in China.
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