Domestic trade plays a pivotal role in facilitating internal circulation and building a unified national market. This study constructs China’s intercity trade networks (CITNs) from 2009 to 2023 using transaction data between listed firms and their suppliers and customers.It analyze the multi-dimensional network structure at the overall, community, and individual levelsby applying complex network theory and Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGM). The goal is to uncover the evolutionary mechanisms driven by both endogenous structural effects and exogenous regional attributes, and to identify the core driving forces behind the development of trade relationships. The results show that China’s intercity trade has entered a stable phase marked by rising efficiency and strengthening cohesion. The network displays a clear core-periphery structure, with cross-regional collaboration and regional agglomeration forming a symbiotic spatial pattern. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen consistently dominate the network, while intermediary cities exhibit notable volatility. Endogenous mechanisms—reciprocity, triadic closure, preferential attachment, and path dependence—positively shape trade ties. At the same time, exogenous factors such as economic scale, infrastructure, industrial structure, and geographical, institutional, and cultural proximity also promote intercity trade linkages. The network has evolved under a stable configuration dominated by internal structural dynamics with complementary external forces. Among these, path dependence emerges as the most influential internal driver, while industrial structure serves as a key external engine. In addition, the endogenous network structures further amplify the influence of certain exogenous factors on the evolution of intercity trade networks. These results suggest that cities should not only strengthen existing trade ties and maintain cooperative stability, but also focus on upgrading their industrial structures to boost trade expansion capacity.
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