党的二十届四中全会提出推进农业转移人口市民化，推行由常住地登记户口提供基本公共服务制度。基于2019—2023年农业转移人口市民化的财政成本和收益数据，对“十五五”期末，即2030年，我国农业转移人口市民化财政成本和收益进行预测，并就七个超大城市农业转移人口市民化对常住地政府财政的影响进行评估。结果表明，超大城市农业转移人口市民化给常住地政府带来了财政净收益，且农业转移人口占常住人口比重越高，其对常住地的税收贡献越大。同时，农业转移人口对促进常住地社会养老保险基金收支平衡起到重要作用。此外，随着基本公共服务对农业转移人口覆盖面的扩大，常住地的农业转移人口市民化财政成本会迅速攀升，但其达到一定水平后会逐步下降，常住地获得的市民化财政净收益也将随之逐步提升。据此提出政策建议，为地方政府推进农业转移人口市民化、落实常住地登记户口供给基本公共服务制度提供决策参考。

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee proposed advancing the citizenization of agricultural migrant population and implementing a system where basic public services are provided based on household registration at the place of permanent residence. Based on data on the fiscal costs and benefits of the citizenization of agricultural migrant population from 2019 to 2023， this study forecasts the fiscal costs and benefits of this process by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period in 2030 and assesses the impact of the citizenization of agricultural migrant population in China’s seven megacities on the local governments of their places of permanent residence.The assessment reveals that citizenization of agricultural migrant population generates net fiscal gains for their places of permanent residence， and the higher the proportion of agricultural migrant population in the resident population， the greater their contribution to local tax revenue. At the same time， agricultural migrant population plays a significant role in promoting the balance of revenues and expenditures in local social pension insurance funds. Furthermore， as the coverage of basic public services for agricultural migrant population expands， the fiscal costs of their citizenization for the places of permanent residence will rise rapidly； However， once these costs reach a certain level， they will gradually decline， and the net fiscal benefits derived by the places of permanent residence from citizenization will also gradually increase accordingly. Based on these findings， policy recommendations are proposed to provide decision-making references for local governments in advancing the citizenization of agricultural migrant population and implementing systems for providing basic public services to those who register permanent residency.