将国家级海洋生态文明建设示范区作为准自然实验,基于2011—2023年我国51个沿海城市的面板数据,构建多期双重差分模型,研究该政策对沿海城市包容性绿色增长的影响。研究发现,国家级海洋生态文明建设示范区政策对沿海城市包容性绿色增长具有显著促进作用,经过平行趋势检验、个体和时间安慰剂检验、排除其他政策干扰、PSM-DID 检验、缩尾检验和增强固定效应等稳健性检验后,该结论仍然成立。该政策效应在政府对生态文明建设关注度高、海岸资源丰富度高和作为智慧城市建设试点的城市中更为显著,海洋科技创新、环境治理投入和人力资本结构在国家级海洋生态文明建设示范区政策促进沿海城市包容性绿色增长的过程中发挥着重要机制作用。基于此,要进一步完善海洋生态文明建设顶层设计,推动政策差异化落实,强化海洋科技创新、环境治理投入与人力资本结构三大机制的协同作用,充分释放海洋生态文明建设效能,促进沿海城市包容性绿色增长。
Taking the National Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to examine the impact of the policy on inclusive green growth in coastal cities, based on panel data for 51 coastal cities in China from 2011 to 2023. The findings indicate that the establishment of National Marine Ecological Civilization Demonstration Zones significantly promotes inclusive green growth in coastal cities. This conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks, including parallel trend tests, individual and in-time placebo tests, exclusion of other policy shocks, PSM-DID tests, winsorization tests, and augmented fixed-effects specifications. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the policy effect is more pronounced in cities characterized by higher governmental attention to ecological civilization construction, richer coastal resource endowments, and the implementation of smart city pilot programs. Mechanism analysis reveals that marine technological innovation, environmental governance investment, and the optimization of human capital structure play important mechanistic roles in enhancing inclusive green growth in coastal cities through the policy. Accordingly, efforts should be made to further improve the top-level design of marine ecological civilization construction, advance differentiated policy implementation across regions, and strengthen the synergistic effects of marine technological innovation, environmental governance investment, and human capital development, thereby fully unleashing the policy effectiveness of marine ecological civilization construction and promoting inclusive green growth in coastal cities.
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