基于山东省各城市2000—2018年的相关数据,运用耦合协调度模型、Tapio脱钩模型、障碍度模型,分析山东省各城市新型城镇化与低碳发展的耦合协调关系及其障碍因素。结果显示:2000—2018年山东省各市新型城镇化水平逐渐上升,低碳发展水平则呈现前期下降、后期上升趋势,两者的耦合协调度总体由基本失调转向基本协调上升。新型城镇化与低碳发展的脱钩类型普遍为强脱钩、弱脱钩,两者间存在负向作用。环境城镇化、社会城镇化、低碳资源、低碳消费是制约新型城镇化与低碳发展耦合协调的主要障碍因素,教育支出占GDP比重、人均公园绿地面积、建成区绿化覆盖率、R&D投资占GDP比重、森林覆盖率等因素需要重点关注。
Based on the data of cities in Shandong province during 2000-2018, this study applied subjective and objective weighting method, coupling coordination degree model, tapio decoupling model and obstacle degree model to analyze the coupling coordination relationship between new urbanization and low-carbon development and its obstacle factors in Shandong Province. The results show that the new urbanization level of all cities in Shandong province gradually increase, while the low-carbon development level show a downward trend in the early stage and an upward trend in the late stage. The changing trends of coupling coordination degree of new urbanization and low-carbon development in different cities are overall rising. The coupling coordination type have changed from basic imbalance to basic balance. The decoupling types are mainly strong decoupling and weak decoupling, which indicates a negative interaction between new urbanization and low-carbon development. Environmental urbanization, social urbanization, low-carbon resource and low-carbon consumption are the main obstacles to coupling coordination between new urbanization and low-carbon development, the key restricting indicators for the improvement of coupling coordination degree are the proportion of education expenditure in GDP, per capita park green area, coverage rate of urban green areas, the proportion of R&D expenditure in GDP and forest coverage rate.
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