研究住房存量价格与增量价格之间的互动关系具有重要意义。主流的住房存量—增量模型在界定存量概念时存在偏差,无论住房存量还是增量,在经济意义上的有效供给才真正参与价格形成。为此,有必要提出“住房存量—增量比”这一概念,在此基础上重新解释住房存量价格与增量价格的相互影响关系。采用PVAR模型对中国70个大中型城市2016—2020年的住房销售月度价格指数进行实证研究,并以分户型和分地区数据分别进行稳健性检验和异质性分析,结果显示:住房存量价格与增量价格互相影响,但前者影响更强,后者影响相对较弱。在增量价格对存量价格的影响方面,西部城市大于东部和中部城市,非一、二线城市大于一、二线城市。相比增量市场,现阶段房地产调控政策应更重视存量市场,并应充分考虑地区间和城市间的市场发展差异。
It is of great significance to study the interaction between housing stock price and flow price. The mainstream housing market stock-flow model has a fallacy in defining the concept of stock. No matter housing stock or flow, the effective supply in the economic sense really participates in the formation of price. Therefore, it is necessary to update the meaning of “ratio of stock-to-flow”, and on this basis, reinterpret the mutual influence of housing stock price and flow price. The PVAR model is used to conduct an empirical study on the monthly price index of 70 large and medium-sized cities in China during 2016-2020, and the robustness test and heterogeneity analysis are carried out with the data of household type and region. The results show that housing stock price and flow price interact with each other, but the former has a greater influence, while the latter has a relatively weak influence. However, the impact of housing flow price on stock price, that in western cities is greater than that in eastern and central cities, that in other cities is greater than that in first- and second-tier cities. Compared with the flow market, the current real estate regulation should pay more attention to the stock market, and consider the differences in development stages between regions.
[1] Harvey J, Jowsey E. Urban Land Economics[M]. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004: 39-44
[2] DiPasquale D, Wheaton W C. Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets[M]. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice Hall, 1996: 243-247
[3] DiPasquale D, Wheaton W C. The markets for real estate sssets and space: A conceptual framework[J]. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 1992(1): 181-197
[4] DiPasquale D, Wheaton W C. Housing market dynamics and the future of house prices[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1994(1): 1-27
[5] DiPasquale D. Why don’t we mnow more about housing supply? [J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1999 (1): 9-23
[6] Wong S K, Chau K W, Yiu C Y. Volatility transmission in the real estate spot and forward markets[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2007 (35): 281-293
[7] 赵敏.中国期房和现房市场价格关系及影响因素的实证研究[D].电子科技大学,2012:3-4
[8] 韩毅. 房屋供给与均衡价格决定——流量与存量分析[J]. 辽宁大学学报(哲学社会科学版),1997(3):37-40
[9] 李铁岗,郑清芬. 论房地产存量市场与流量市场均衡[J]. 山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2001(2):73-77
[10] 刘彦喆. 我国房地产存量市场与增量市场结构分析[J]. 合作经济与科技,2009(7):16
[11] 刘晓君,赵文兵. 谈房地产增量市场与存量市场的互动关系[J]. 商业时代,2010(5):124-125
[12] 尹今朝,张洪. 上海市房地产增量与存量市场的互动分析[J]. 现代经济(现代物业下半月刊),2009(6):146-147
[13] 葛亮,徐邓耀. 房地产增量市场与房地产存量市场的互动机理分析[J]. 统计与决策,2007(6):107-109
[14] 冯玥,王如渊. 房地产增量市场与房地产存量市场互动机理分析[J]. 中国住房设施,2006(6):24-26
[15] 王熊珏,李进涛,万美佳. 预售与存量住宅价格的内生性及互动关系——基于面板误差修正模型的实证[J]. 湖北工业大学学报,2015(3):65-68,88
[16] 张玉英,韩国栋. 上海市住宅两级市场之间价格关系的检验分析[J]. 华中科技大学学报(城市科学版),2004(2):71-74
[17] 李进涛,孙峻,李红波. 住宅增量与存量价格关系的实证检验[J]. 统计与决策,2012(3):107-109
[18] 李进涛,郭志涛. 基于谱分析的城市住宅价格周期关系研究——以武汉市为例[J]. 湖北经济学院学报,2011(5):45-49
[19] 李进涛,谭术魁,孙慧清. 基于同质面板因果检验的住宅增量与存量市场价格关系研究——以武汉市为例[J]. 科学·经济·社会,2009(3):41-45
[20] 张清勇,郑环环.住宅存量与流量价格的领先—滞后关系——以北京、上海、广州和深圳为例[J]. 财贸经济,2009(5):104-110
[21] Hayek F A. The use of knowledge in society[J]. American Economic Review, 1945 (4): 519-530
[22] Waugh F V. Quality factors influencing vegetable prices[J]. Journal of Farm Economics, 1928 (2): 185-196
[23] Court A T. Hedonic price indexes with automotive examples[J]. The Dynamics of Automobile Demand, 1939 (6): 99-119
[24] Ridker R G, Henning J A. Determinants of residential property values with special reference to air pollution[J]. 1967 (2): 246-257
[25] Rosen S. Hedonic prices and implicit markets: Product differentiation in pure competition[J]. Journal of Political Economy. 1974 (1): 35-55
[26] Ammous S. The Bitcoin Standard:the Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking[M]. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2018: 5-6
[27] Sims C A. Macroeconomics and reality[J]. Econometrica, 1980 (1): 1-48
[28] Holtz-Eakin D, Newey W, Rosen H S. Estimating vector autoregressions with Panel Data[J]. Econometrica, 1988 (6): 1371-1395
[29] Abrigo M R M, Love I. Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata[J]. Stata Journal, 2016 (3): 778-804
[30] 陈强. 高级计量经济学及Stata应用(第二版)[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社,2014:422-431
[31] Levin A, Lin C F, Chu C S J. Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2002 (1): 1-24
[32] Hadri K. Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data[J]. Econometrics Journal, 2000 (2): 148-161
[33] Choi I. Unit root tests for panel data[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2001 (2): 249-272
[34] Im K S, Pesaran M H, Shin Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 2003 (1): 53-74
