以京津风沙源治理工程为政策背景,基于2000—2018年环首都地区县域层面的面板数据,采用固定效应和双重差分模型实证检验了植树造林对人均GDP、农村居民人均可支配收入、PM2.5浓度及二氧化硫排放强度的影响。研究发现:环首都地区的植树造林显著提高了人均GDP和农村居民人均可支配收入,降低了PM2.5浓度和二氧化硫排放强度,表明京津风沙源治理中的经济发展与环境保护可以兼顾,这一结论在选择“京津风沙源治理工程”作为准自然实验进行稳健性检验后仍然成立。强环境政策冲击会推动地区经济与环境质量的短期提升,但作用的长期可持续性需要加强。此外,强环境政策冲击对农村居民人均可支配收入的带动效应存在明显的时间滞后性。
This study examines the impact of afforestation on per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of rural residents, PM2.5 concentration, and sulfur dioxide emission intensity using panel data at the county level in the Beijing-Tianjin region from 2000 to 2018. The analysis is conducted within the policy framework of the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project, utilizing fixed effects and difference-in-differences models. The findings reveal that afforestation in the Beijing-Tianjin region significantly enhances per capita GDP and per capita disposable income of rural residents, while reducing PM2.5 concentration and sulfur dioxide emission intensity, indicating the feasibility of achieving economic development and environmental protection simultaneously. The robustness tests, which employ the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project as a quasi-natural experiment, affirm this conclusion. Strong environmental policy measures can improve regional economy and environmental quality in the short term, but the long-term sustainability of their effects requires reinforcement. Moreover, the impact of strong environmental policy measures on per capita disposable income of rural residents exhibits an evident time lag.
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