以中国地级市为研究样本,实证分析了移动互联网发展对城市就业的影响。研究发现:移动互联网发展显著促进了城市就业增长,这一关系经内生性检验后仍然成立,但在不同区域、城市、产业以及就业类型中表现出异质性。非线性影响分析表明,当前中国移动互联网与宽带互联网在促进就业方面正在进行新旧动能交接。移动互联网对城市就业的边际递增影响呈现明显的门槛特征,说明该效应受到“梅特卡夫定律”支配。宽带互联网接入、经济发展、产业结构特征会制约移动互联网就业效应的发挥,反映其受到技术路径依赖及经济环境的影响。研究结果为数字通用技术对就业的影响研究提供了新的经验证据,并为中国在数字经济时代推动移动互联网发展以实现更充分的就业提供启示。
The paper theoretically discusses the mechanism of the employment effect of mobile internet development, and takes China’s prefecture-level cities as a research sample to empirically analyze the impact of mobile internet development on urban employment. The results show that mobile internet has significantly promoted the growth of urban employment, and the results are still valid after overcoming potential endogeneity, but there are heterogeneity in different regions, cities, industries and types of employment. The nonlinear impact analysis indicates that the current mobile internet and broadband internet in China are undergoing a handover of old and new drivers in promoting employment. The impact of the mobile internet on urban employment shows a significant threshold effect, indicating that the effect is governed by Metcalf’s law. Broadband internet access, economic development and industrial structure will affect the marginal impact of mobile internet on urban employment, reflecting its influence by technological path dependence and economic environment. The above research offers new empirical evidence for the debate that digital general technology affects employment, and provides a reference basis for China to promote the development of mobile internet to achieve fuller employment in the era of digital economy.
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