HE Jun, LIU Yong
This paper uses data from 158 shrinking cities in China from 2010 to 2023 to explore the fit between the two and their causal mechanisms. Research has shown that: The overall adaptability relationship is poor, and the adaptation level is mainly characterized by extreme and relatively poor adaptation. The ranking of regional levels from high to low is in the central, eastern, northeastern, and western regions. In terms of temporal changes, except for the central region, all other regions show a downward trend. In terms of spatial distribution, it has strong agglomeration characteristics and is highly unsuitable for dense distribution in Northeast, North, Northwest, Southwest, and Shandong Hunan provinces, while more suitable cities are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The types of adaptation can be divided into four categories: tapping potential development, intensive expansion, inefficient expansion, and extensive expansion. In terms of causes, due to the influence of natural resources and location endowment, economic foundation and industrial structure, management system and policy factors, urban shrinkage generates high fiscal expenditure rigidity and maintenance pressure, low investment return rate, and weak fiscal revenue caused by declining domestic demand, resulting in an imbalance between local fiscal revenue and expenditure, and the failure to form a good matching relationship between local government debt and economic development in shrinking cities.
